Monday, June 30, 2008

Back to the FAIR discussion

Previously I have tried to argue why FAIR is a valid approach. Now I think there is some research result that might be helpful to understand why FAIR works

Overcoming Bias: Average Your Guesses

In short, the article states that making two (many?) guesses is better than making one guess...

So if you have an approach (FAIR) that lets an expert make several informed guesses and combine them rigorously, then it is quite likely you will get a better estimation than only by making one single guess.

3 comments:

Alex Hutton said...

Hey Tomas!

Another great resource is Hubbard's "How To Measure Anything" book. Hyperbole title aside, it's really a book about "calibrating" (his term) Bayesian measurements from subj. matter experts without getting too deep into the whole probability theory angle.

Tomas said...

Alex, I have just ordered a copy of the book.

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