Previously I have tried to argue why FAIR is a valid approach. Now I think there is some research result that might be helpful to understand why FAIR works
Overcoming Bias: Average Your Guesses
In short, the article states that making two (many?) guesses is better than making one guess...
So if you have an approach (FAIR) that lets an expert make several informed guesses and combine them rigorously, then it is quite likely you will get a better estimation than only by making one single guess.
Overcoming Bias: Average Your Guesses
In short, the article states that making two (many?) guesses is better than making one guess...
So if you have an approach (FAIR) that lets an expert make several informed guesses and combine them rigorously, then it is quite likely you will get a better estimation than only by making one single guess.
3 comments:
Hey Tomas!
Another great resource is Hubbard's "How To Measure Anything" book. Hyperbole title aside, it's really a book about "calibrating" (his term) Bayesian measurements from subj. matter experts without getting too deep into the whole probability theory angle.
Alex, I have just ordered a copy of the book.
Who knows where to download XRumer 5.0 Palladium?
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